As the national housing market slows, a new report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows a 2.7 percent drop in existing home sales across the country in June. But in Maricopa County, and the Phoenix housing market, the shift is even more pronounced. Local data confirms that buyers now hold the advantage, and sellers are responding by offering substantial incentives to close deals.
Across Phoenix, Scottsdale, and the East Valley, seller concessions are now averaging more than $10,000, covering everything from closing costs to interest rate buydowns. For buyers in neighborhoods like Arcadia and North Central Phoenix, this marks a dramatic reversal from the pandemic-fueled seller’s market of recent years.
National Housing Market Snapshot
The NAR’s June 2025 report showed existing home sales nationwide fell 2.7 percent from May and 5.4 percent from June 2024. The median home price reached a record $426,900, but price increases were largely limited to a handful of competitive metros.
“Some regions are seeing clear signs of price corrections and seller flexibility,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. That includes the Phoenix housing market, which is diverging from the national trend.
Maricopa County Becomes a Buyer’s Market
According to Redfin and local MLS data, Maricopa County is now squarely in buyer’s market territory.
Key stats for June 2025:
- Median sale price: $455,000 (down from $475,000 in June 2024)
- Active listings: Up 23 percent year over year
- Average days on market: 45 (up from 21 last year)
- Listings with price drops: 42 percent
While home prices in many parts of the country have held steady, the Phoenix real estate market is showing clear signs of softening. More inventory, longer time on market, and growing affordability challenges are forcing sellers to make deals more attractive to buyers.
Phoenix vs Maricopa County: A Tale of Two Markets
The city of Phoenix is seeing the most aggressive shift. The median sale price is now $440,000, which is nearly 4 percent lower than a year ago. Meanwhile, nearby suburbs and luxury markets like Scottsdale and Paradise Valley are seeing more stable prices but still longer times on market.
Phoenix housing data (June 2025):
- Median price: $440,000
- Average seller concessions: $10,800
- New listings: Up 18 percent from last year
- Homes sold above list price: Only 16 percent
Greater Maricopa County (excluding Phoenix):
- Median price: $462,000
- Average concessions: $9,950
- Listings with price drops: 44 percent
This means that while Phoenix proper is cooling faster, sellers across the county are adjusting expectations. The data points to a more negotiable market, particularly for buyers who are local and flexible.
What Is Driving the Change?
There are several factors contributing to this shift in the Phoenix housing market:
- High mortgage rates: Hovering around 7 percent, these rates are limiting what buyers can afford.
- Increased inventory: Homeowners who bought early in the pandemic are now looking to upgrade or relocate.
- Affordability concerns: Rising taxes and insurance costs in Arizona are capping budgets.
- Competition from new builds: Developers in areas like Buckeye, Queen Creek, and North Phoenix are offering aggressive incentives.
Buyers Regain Negotiating Power
For the first time in years, buyers are calling the shots. Inspection and appraisal contingencies are back. Contingent offers are being considered. And sellers are more likely to offer incentives up front.
“Outside of higher end sales, until recently buyers had no leverage. Now, they’re negotiating tens of thousands off the asking price or getting it back in concessions,” said Will Carter, a real estate agent specializing in Arcadia and North Central Phoenix. “While we are still seeing above asking price in Arcadia and similar neighborhoods, most sellers have to come to the table with more than just a nice kitchen.”
Common seller concessions now include:
- Interest rate buydowns of 1 to 2 percent
- 3 to 6 percent of the purchase price toward closing costs
- Credits for repairs, appliances, or HVAC upgrades
- Home warranties and prepaid HOA dues
According to local transaction data, more than 47 percent of homes sold in Maricopa County this June included seller-paid incentives. That is a sharp increase from only 19 percent one year ago.
What This Means for Buyers in Central Phoenix
For families in North Central, Arcadia, Biltmore, or the 85016 and 85018 zip codes, the window to upgrade or relocate locally may be the best it has been since before 2020.
Local market trends to watch:
- Homes in the $900,000 to $1.2 million range are staying on the market longer
- Sellers are open to repair credits and flexible terms
- New listings are competing with move-in ready builds offering incentives
“We’re seeing more move-up buyers who want to stay in Phoenix but finally feel they can negotiate again,” Carter added. “They can sell their current home, negotiate a lower purchase price on the next one, and get thousands covered in concessions.”
Advice for Sellers
Sellers in Maricopa County can still get strong results, but pricing and presentation are critical. Overpricing leads to longer time on market and forced price reductions.
To stay competitive, real estate professionals recommend:
- Pricing based on current comp trends, not past peak sales
- Offering incentives up front like interest rate buydowns
- Making repairs and improvements before listing
“If you’re in a desirable area like the Central Corridor, you still have an advantage,” said Carter. “But buyers are doing their homework. If your home doesn’t stand out or is overpriced, they will wait or negotiate hard.”
The Bottom Line
While the national housing market continues to moderate, the Phoenix housing market has clearly shifted in favor of buyers. In Maricopa County, where seller concessions are now common and inventory is growing, savvy buyers are finding more flexibility and fewer bidding wars.
If you are planning to buy or sell in 2025, understanding this new landscape is key. Buyers should act strategically and request concessions. Sellers need to price realistically and be ready to negotiate.
The market has changed. Those who adapt will win.
Realtor Will Carter can be reached at 602-809-1224 (call/text) or by visiting his website.
