As election season approaches, Arizona voters are shifting their focus. So, what truly matters to Arizonans as they head to the polls? A new poll by Noble Predictive Insights highlights a surprising shift in voter priorities: affordable housing is now a top concern across party lines, even surpassing traditional issues like inflation and immigration.
Conducted in May with nearly 2,000 registered and likely voters, the poll reveals that affordable housing has climbed the ranks to become the #1 issue for Democrats, #2 for independents, and #3 for Republicans. This marks a significant departure from past years, where topics like inflation and immigration usually dominated the conversation. So, why this sudden interest in housing?
“The rapid rise in housing costs since 2020 is driving voters’ focus on affordable housing,” explains Mike Noble, the pollster behind the survey. As housing prices soar, many Arizonans find themselves struggling to keep up—whether they’re first-time homebuyers or renters facing skyrocketing costs. This financial pressure is pushing affordable housing to the forefront of voter concerns, cutting across demographics from rural communities to young and Hispanic voters.
Arizona’s housing crisis, marked by a shortfall of around 100,000 units in 2020, has prompted recent policy changes. Governor Katie Hobbs recently signed four bipartisan bills aimed at accelerating housing development and reducing costs. Among these, two bills backed by the Arizona Multihousing Association are designed to incentivize the redevelopment and adaptive reuse of commercial properties.
Noble suggests that political candidates would be wise to pay attention to this shift. “Housing is a unique issue because it’s politically unclaimed,” he points out. “Candidates should seize this opportunity to craft and refine their position on housing, as voters across the board are eager for solutions.”
In the past two presidential elections, Arizona has cemented itself as a battleground state with shifting political dynamics. In 2016, Arizona voters leaned Republican, favoring Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton by a margin of about 3.5%. However, the 2020 election marked a significant shift when Arizona flipped blue for the first time in decades, with Joe Biden narrowly defeating Donald Trump by just over 10,000 votes. This outcome highlighted the state’s growing demographic changes and its increasing role as a critical swing state. As Arizona continues to evolve politically, issues like affordable housing are likely to play a pivotal role in shaping voter preferences and influencing future elections.
